Last October, the head of Sequoia Capital, the top dog in Silicon Valley venture capital, called a now infamous meeting. The heads of the companies in which Sequoia had invested were ushered into a boardroom where, standing before them, was a gravestone bearing the epitaph “RIP Good Times.”
British partner Mike Moritz then began a detailed explanation of how bad the next few years were likely to be. Staff would have to be cut, budgets trimmed to the bone and all industries would be hit business and consumer. Given Sequoia Capital’s clout and track record, the whole tech industry took the message to heart.
However, nearly six months later, the situation may not be as gloomy as some first believed. Redundancies have been bad but businesses are still buying they are simply more selective about IT.
A case in point is the move to green computing, which is receiving a double stimulus from government spending and the knowledge that it makes sense, because efficient technology saves money.
Likewise, mobile data also seems to be surviving. Mobile internet is taking off in the US in a big way now that services are being standardised. The duality of mobile phone standards in the US has left the country two steps behind Europe, and to an extent one behind Asia. But 3G has won out and there is now strong growth in mobile applications, particularly in financial transactions and location-based services.
But the really safe bet seems to be services. Salesforce.com and other software-as-a-service firms have seen a big uptake in business. It is partly the result of reliable web connections but also the cost savings involved. Buying software on CDs is seen as wasteful and so old fashioned.
Companies such as IBM have been seeing growth in software services revenue while hardware sales head in the opposite direction. IBM’s sale of its PC division to Lenovo is now looking like a very smart move indeed.
The one bright spot in hardware is mobile sales. The iPhone is making a play for the business market, although it needs much more application support to really make an impression; RIM is continually hitting the market with better BlackBerry models, and the new Palm Pre looks to be a smash if the company can deliver on time.
By Iain Thomson, US editor



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